Hobbyist/Statistical Forecaster

We’re seeking independent forecasters—particularly those active in forecasting competitions and marketplaces—to generate high-quality predictions across domains like economics, finance, and geopolitics. This is a unique opportunity to apply your statistical intuition and forecasting experience toward improving next-generation AI systems.

2. Key Responsibilities

Produce structured, probabilistic forecasts across diverse domains

Clearly articulate forecasting logic, assumptions, and data inputs

Draw on models, heuristics, and statistical reasoning to inform predictions

Collaborate with a global network of forecasters and AI researchers

Provide feedback on prompt quality, resolution criteria, and forecast design

3. Ideal Qualifications

Active participation in forecasting platforms (e.g., Metaculus, Polymarket, Kalshi, Numerai, Kaggle)

High leaderboard placement or notable tournament track record

Strong statistical reasoning and ability to work with probabilistic frameworks

Comfortable documenting thought processes and communicating clearly in writing

Self-driven and intellectually curious

4. More About the Opportunity

Remote and asynchronous — work on your own schedule

Expected commitment: ~10–20 hours/week

5. Compensation & Contract Terms

$105–140/hour for U.S.-based applicants

You’ll be classified as an independent contractor

6. Application Process

Submit your  profile or resume to get started

You’ll complete a brief form and may be asked to complete a sample forecast

We’ll follow up within a few days with next steps